EvaluatePharma estimates $785 billion worldwide sales in 2016

Pharmaceutical companies fared better than predicted in 2009, according to EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2016. The worldwide market grew 2.6%, with pandemic flu vaccines contributing almost a third of that growth. Last year, the company had predicted a 0.7% downturn for the industry.

EvaluatePharma’s global forecast shows modest year-on-year market growth, averaging 2.9% between 2010 and 2016, when global prescription drug sales are expected to reach $785 billion.

That’s a few hundred billion dollars off from IMS Health’s global forecast, which sees pharmaceutical sales worldwide reaching $1.1 trillion in 2014.

Pfizer was the biggest seller of drugs in 2009 ($55.3 billion), and EvaluatePharma expects the company to maintain the top spot in 2016, but with lower sales ($47.1 billion). Fifteen of the 20 biggest companies are expected to see increases in sales by 2016, with Abbott Laboratories, Baxter International, Gilead Sciences, Novo Nordisk and Teva Pharmaceutical seeing 6% increases or higher. AstraZeneca will be taking the biggest hit in sales, down 5% by 2016, the same year its blockbuster anti-cholesterol agent Crestor is scheduled to lose patent protection.

Humira, the anti-rheumatic injectable from Abbott Laboratories, is expected to be the world’s largest selling product in 2016, with $10.1 billion in sales. Roche’s Avastin, for the treatment of cancer, will be the second largest drug at $8.9 billion in sales. Last month Thomson Reuters released a forecast for top-selling drugs in 2014, putting Avastin at the top, with $8.9 billion in sales, versus the second-place Humira, with $8.5 billion in sales.

Oncology will remain the largest drug segment in 2016, with $72.8 billion in sales driven by Roche’s Avastin, Herceptin and Rituxan. Anti-coagulants will see the biggest jump, experiencing an 11% increase to $14.1 billion in sales, thanks to new oral treatments in the category.

In 2016, small molecule drugs will still make up the majority of the top 100 selling drugs, with 52% in sales versus 48% for biotechnology.

Download the EvaluatePharma World Preview 2016.