Global pharma growth will be 5-8% annually through 2014, predicts IMS Health

First, the good news: The global pharmaceutical market is expected to grow 5—8% over the next five years, according to IMS Health’s latest

Market Prognosis

, a five-year forecast of the pharmaceutical industry done at the national, regional and global level. That’s a slight uptick from the company’s 4—6% growth rate prediction for 2010.

IMS also sees the industry hitting the trillion-dollar mark, growing $300 billion in the next five years to reach $1.1 trillion in 2014. That’s despite the fact that total drug spending is expected to drop $80—$100 billion worldwide after several blockbusters like Lipitor (cholesterol), Plavix (anticoagulation) or Seroquel (CNS) face competition from generics, particularly in the US.

Biosimilars—generic versions of biotech products—will only begin to show up at the end of the five-year period, says Murray Aitken, SVP at IMS. “While the recently passed healthcare reform legislation provides a pathway for biosimilars, it will be some time before FDA gets regulations written, begins accepting submissions, and starts making its approval decisions,” he says. The regulatory framework is different in Europe, where some biosimilars are starting to emerge.

More good news comes for what IMS Health calls the “pharmerging” markets, including Brazil, China, India, Mexico, Russia, Venezuela and 12 other countries, which are expected to grow 14—17% through 2014, compared with 3–6% for established markets. IMS notes that aggregate growth for both types of markets will be similar—$120- $140 billion.

But IMS Health does see some setbacks in pharma’s future, including spending cuts in publicly funded health systems. IMS points to countries like France, Germany, Spain and Turkey that have already announced plans to limit access to drug therapies or reduce reimbursements, and says more governments may follow suit.