Market research firm Evaluate Pharma, in its annual World Preview report, projects a global growth rate for the pharma industry of 6.3% CAGR through 2022, up from the 5% CAGR it predicted last year for the 2014-2020 period. Nevertheless, for investors, the “spectacular four-year bull run” of pharma and biotech valuations during 2011-2015 might be coming to an end, with uncertainties over Brexit and the US presidential election, in an atmosphere of rising skepticism over the worth of pharma products at ever-escalating prices.
The overall $1.12 trillion market in 2022, says Evaluate, will rise at a faster clip during 2016-2020, then slow down a bit as major patent expirations take hold. (Evaluate says that the global market actually declined by 1.0% in 2015, but will grow by 4.8% this year. Prescription sales excluding generics will rise 4.4% this year, and will reach $1.006 trillion in 2022. Generics sales will increase from $73 billion in 2015 to $115 billion in 2022, and constitute 10.2% of prescription sales at that point (only 0.3 percentage points more than it is now).
Among global companies, Roche could overtake Novartis by the slimmest of margins by 2022, with sales of $52.6 billion versus $52.5 billion. Pfizer will drop to No. 3, with sales of $49.1 billion (this analysis preceded that company’s bid to acquire Medivation).
R&D spend growth flattens
During the 2008-2015 period, the compound annual growth rate of global R&D spending was 1.7%; during the 2016-2022 period, the rate will grow at 2.8%. The year-over-year increase, however, will remain around 3%, versus some dramatic jumps seen in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Overall spending will reach $182 billion in 2022. Top spenders in 2015 were Roche and Novartis ($8.5 billion each in 2015), Pfizer ($7.7 billion), J&J ($6.8 billion), Merck ($6.6 billion), and Sanofi and AstraZeneca ($5.6 billion each). However, in 2022, J&J will overtake Pfizer, and Sanofi will overtake Merck.
By 2022, the biggest-selling global branded drug will be Opdivo (nivolumab) from BMS and Ono Pharma, with sales projected to go from $1.119 billion in 2015 to $14,634 billion, and overtaking the current No. 1 drug, AbbVie’s and Eisai’s Humira (adalimumab), currently at $14.359 billion and dropping slightly to $13.645 billion in 2022. However, among the Top 50 drugs in the market currently, the largest growth will be seen by J&J’s Darzalex (daratumumab), an anti-CD38 antibody for multiple myeloma, projected to rise from $9 million now to $4.9 billion by 2022, a 146% growth.
The full report is available at Evaluate Pharma.