Global Study Warns Cancer Cases to Triple in Low-HDI Countries by 2050, Urging Enhanced Prevention, Care Initiatives

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A study published by JAMA Network Open on disparities in cancer incidence and mortality projects that by 2050, incidence rates and deaths will nearly triple in low-Human Development Index (HDI) countries compared to moderate increases in high-HDI countries. These findings highlight the need to strengthen global cancer prevention initiatives, emphasize early detection, and improve treatment efforts, according to the authors.¹

HDI combines indicators such as life expectancy, education, and gross national income per capita. The study noted a significant disruption of worldwide cancer prevention and care following the COVID-19 pandemic and made worse by ongoing global conflicts, a change in healthcare funding priorities, and increased cost-of-living. The study estimated that between 2020 and 2022, the global HDI experienced a substantial decrease across two straight years.

Investigators noted that the ongoing disruptions have had a disproportionate impact on cancer care across regions based on sociodemographic categories, causing disparities that can be analyzed via mortality to incidence ratio (MIR).

“Previous studies focused on the MIR were conducted using data collected prior to 2020 and data on selected cancer types, such as lung, liver, and gastric cancer,” the study authors wrote. “As already noted, global disruptions and shifts in health priorities underscore the need to continuously monitor cancer statistics globally to ensure delivery of equitable and optimal cancer prevention and care in uncertain times.”

Investigators conducted evidence-based decision-making for MIR on 36 types of cancer while analyzing disparities by geographic region, sex, and age from the most recent data from the Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN). Investigators also assessed cancer rates, prevalence, and projections for 2050. They gathered population-based data from 2022 for 185 countries and territories, with data extraction and analysis conducted in April 2024.

The study estimated a projected 35.3 million cancer cases worldwide by 2050, which represents a 76.6% increase from the estimated total of 20 million in 2022. For cancer deaths, investigators estimated an 89.7% increase from the 2022 estimate of 9.7 million, with 18.5 million cancer deaths projected by 2050.

“By 2050, cancer incidence in low-HDI countries is projected to increase 142.1% compared with 41.7% in very high–HDI countries, with estimated cancer deaths estimated to increase by 146.1% in low-HDI countries compared with 56.8% in very high–HDI countries,” the study authors wrote. “Strengthening the development and implementation of tobacco and alcohol control measures (including taxation, advertising bans, and smoke-free policies) and promoting access to and consumption of healthy diets rich in fruits, vegetables, and whole grains while limiting processed foods and saturated fats have been shown to reduce cancer risk. Expansion of community-based screening programs will be important for prevention, early detection, and reduction of cancer-related morbidity and mortality.”

The higher incidence and greater number of deaths among men in 2022 compared to women are projected to continue widening by nearly 16.0% in 2050. MIR in 2022 for all cancer types was 46.6%, with higher MIRs estimated for pancreatic cancer at 89.4%, in males at 51.7%, in individuals 75 years of age or older at 64.3%, and in low-HDI countries at 69.9% and the African region at 67.2%.

“On the basis of these findings, cancer cases and deaths are projected to nearly triple in low-income countries by 2050 compared to a moderate increase in high-income countries (142.1% vs 41.7% for cancer cases and 146.1% vs 56.8% for cancer deaths),” the study authors concluded. “Greater increases in cancer cases (15.8%) and deaths (8.0%) are projected among males compared with females. Strengthening health care access and quality, including universal health insurance coverage, and health care systems in the prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment of cancer will be paramount for improving clinical outcomes and slowing projected trends.”

Reference

1. Bizuayehu HM, Ahmed KY, Kibret GD, et al. Global Disparities of Cancer and Its Projected Burden in 2050. JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(11):e2443198. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.43198.