Something of a sea change occurred between the annual forecast made by EvaluatePharma last year, and this year’s: then, the company predicted 2017 global sales to be $822 billion; now, it projects $774 billion, up only 0.8% from the year before. Sales growth will increase by 6.5% CAGR between this year and 2022, with global sales reaching $1.06 trillion by 2022 (as compared to last year’s $1.12 trillion; oddly, Evaluate chose not to project out to 2023 this year.) If a cumulative $390 billion in sales is taken out of the equation between 2016 and 2022, as currently predicted, the industry is looking at a grimmer future (all that being said, sales growth is projected for each of the intervening years between now and 2022; pharma may be one of the few industries that nearly always counts on growth above inflation).
EvaluatePharma’s analysts blame pricing pressure for the shortfall this year, and point to disappointing results from recently introduced drugs like Sanofi’s Praluent, Amgen’s Repatha and GSK’s Nucala. “The continued political and public scrutiny over pricing of both the industry’s new and old drugs is not going to go away and we are starting to feel the impact now. Market access is becoming harder,” said Antonio Iervolino, head of forecasting.
In the race for industry leadership, Novartis, Pfizer and Roche will wind up in 2022 within $100 million of each other, with Novartis the possible leader at $49.8 in sales, and with a CAGR of 3%. Pfizer’s projected CAGR is 1%, while Roche’s is 4%. Two companies are projected to show dramatic falloffs in their rank: Gilead Sciences, whose 2022 sales will drop nearly a third (to $20.8 billion), and falling from No. 7 to No. 16 in ranking; and Allergan, whose sales will grow by a relatively paltry $600 million, to $19.2 billion, and whose rank will fall from 12 to 18. Conversely, Cellgene is projected to jump from No. 21 to No. 10, with a 15% CAGR, driven in large part by its blood-cancer treatment, Revlimid.
Among other data, Evaluate’s World Preview 2017, Outlook to 2022, finds:
- Biologics to contribute 52% of the Top 100 product sales by 2022; Roche leads market;
- 32% of the 2022 increase in sales to come from orphan drugs (+$95bn);
- Patent expiries could wipe out $194bn worth of pharma sales during 2016-2022 – potentially signaling a second patent cliff;
- AbbVie’s Humira will continue to be the leading product in the USA in 2022, with sales of $12.0 billion, and also the No. 1 global brand, with sales of $15.9 billion.
The EvaluatePharma report is available at no cost here.